Rapid risk assessment improvement of epidemic intelligence methodologies

Project objectives

• Set up an epidemic intelligence alliance (EI) in Europe (capacity building in Task 1) for both terrestrial and aquatic animals compounded by human-animal-wildlifeenvironmental interface.

• Identify new challenges in risk assessment and outbreak response of emerging and re-emerging diseases as well as endemic diseases including climate-environmental driven diseases (Task 1)

• Develop an epidemic intelligence data link model, through the identification, standardization and centralisation of datasources and datasets for qualitative, semiquantitative and quantitative rapid risk assessment (Task 2)

• Expand, develop and/or adapt rigorous and objective scientific rapid risk assessment methods on the incursion risk at different geographical and population levels, of animal diseases and zoonoses with the aim to guide early warning and risk-based surveillance (Task 3)
• Develop forecasting models on subsequent disease spread (epidemiological consequences) to support quantitative risk assessments approaches at national and EU level (Task 4 and 5)
• Develop guidelines for rapid risk assessment preparation and Communication and dissemination of results (Task 6)

Outcomes and impacts

• Epidemic Intelligence Alliance (EI) to enhance collaboration, capacity-building, and interdisciplinary efforts for both terrestrial and aquatic animal diseases
• New challenges identified in risk assessment and outbreak response, including the impact of environmental and climate-driven factors on disease emergence.
• Standardized epidemic intelligence data link model, ensuring better integration, harmonization, and accessibility of qualitative, semi-quantitative, and quantitative risk assessment data.
• Advanced rapid risk assessment methods to improve early warning and risk-based surveillance across different geographical and population levels.
• Forecasting models to predict disease spread and epidemiological consequences, supporting more effective risk assessment approaches at national and international levels.
• Novel methodology for estimating fish virus stability and survival in seawater, providing critical insights into aquatic disease transmission.
• Comprehensive assessment of livestock movement data quality, improving surveillance and biosecurity measures for better disease control.
• DiFLUsion, an advanced real-time alert system that integrates multiple data sources—including outbreak reports, bird-ringing data, and temperature patterns—to monitor and map the weekly risk of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) introduction, offering a user-friendly platform for timely risk assessments.
• Guidelines for rapid risk assessment, as well as enhanced communication strategies to improve risk dissemination and stakeholder engagement
• Epidemic Intelligence (EI) enhances rapid risk assessment by integrating multiple data sources, computational models, and surveillance components. Improved early detection, verification, and response to disease incursions makes surveillance more proactive, accurate, and timely.
• Advanced quantitative risk assessment further refine methodologies, improve data utilization, and address key challenges. The need for high-quality movement data is highlighted. Improved estimates of virus stability and survival in aquaculture contribute to better disease transmission modelling and prevention strategies.
• The integration of real-time surveillance systems with multiple data sources enhances early warning capabilities, enabling targeted biosecurity measures. These innovations support data-driven decision-making, minimize economic and public health risks, and strengthen disease prevention and control strategies.